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Cannabis

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“The ability to see companies re-rate to growth multiples that exist outside of industry is part of why investors should be excited about cannabis companies. They’re not too late. In fact, they’re still early.”
-Tim Seymour

Cannabis Investing 

Cannabis is really nothing more than another cash crop, like coffee or sugar. While it’s only a weed, the commercial cultivation of the plant is highly complex; it’s difficult to get a plant to express the right properties to deliver the desired effect. In several states where growing seasons are short and/or unpredictable, cannabis is likely grown indoors, which requires greenhouses, growing containers, dirt, fertilizer and the like.   

How do cannabis markets develop? 

As with many other markets, a new cannabis market can be characterized by three separate phases:

1) inception

2) hypergrowth 

3) maturity

  1. Inception phase: In the inception phase, state governments outline the basic rules and regulations of the market. This phase varies in length since states take different amounts of time to set regulations. California, for example, took considerably longer than most other states due to the restrictive laws and confusing regulations between jurisdictions. Oklahoma, on the other hand, had a short inception period due to few regulatory obstacles.
  2. Hypergrowth phase: After the supply chain is regulated, there is normally a spike in growth of the cannabis market — the hypergrowth phase. During this phase, more advanced and recognizable products, like vaporizer pens, THC gummies and topicals, appear on dispensary shelves. At this point in the development of the market, it’s not uncommon for issues to arise between state and local governments.
  3. Maturity phase: A mature cannabis market is quite similar to any other mature market: As the market becomes saturated, growth slows and the price of flower decreases heavily. Usually this is accompanied by low single-digit year-over-year growth rates. It is not uncommon for once profitable mom-and-pop dispensaries and cultivators to go out of business due to larger players entering the market.

Due to the massive growth expected to occur in the cannabis industry over next five to ten years, it is reasonable to assume that cannabis investments collectively will outperform many other mature asset classes such as real estate, private equity, public equities, or fixed income. The question is, which early-stage companies today will be responsible for driving this outperformance?

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